Modelling the spread of dengue in Singapore

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a simulation model that describes the spread of dengue in Singapore. The host population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious and resistant). The vector population is considered as a whole because it is difficult to figure out the dengue virus status in the vector. We use the larvae density as an index of vector and set up a relationship between this index and the number of dengue cases. In our model, the flow between compartments is described by a set of differential equations and the change of vector population with time is described by means of a piece-wise function. The model is stochastic as well as deterministic. We take into account the majority of factors that are known to influence dengue epidemiology. Compared with the theoretical model developed by Newton and Reiter (1992), our model is more realistic and suitable to the local situation. The results will hopefully provide an insight into the spread of Dengue in Singapore and form a basis for further modelling studies in this area.